A lot has changed with respect to the Oscar landscape since my
Oscar Talk - Part 1 back on November 10th. Although I still haven't had the opportunity to see all of the awards season contenders yet, nearly every movie in the race has screened for some audience and, from those viewings, many assertions can be made. However, tomorrow will be the first true Oscar indicator with the Screen Actors Guild Nominations being announced, so you'll want to listen closely for which names are called. But before we get our first real look into the acting competitions with tomorrow's announcement, here's a glance into where the 6 major categories stand.
Best Picture
Best Bets
What once looked like a three-headed monster with critical darlings
Boyhood,
Birdman and
The Imitation Game, has morphed into a four-horse race with the latest mammoth contender,
Selma. With our nation in the midst of recent police brutality stories that have elevated racial tension to its highest levels since the Civil Rights Movement,
Selma's "Bloody Sunday" focal point appears to be mirroring contemporary issues facing our country. But one question still remains, can
Selma ride this recent parallel all the way to a Best Picture title in February?
Next Tier
There are almost a dozen other legitimate films vying for the remaining spot(s) in the Best Picture race. Recent rules allow for the Oscars to recognize anywhere from one to ten films in the Best Picture category, depending upon voting outcomes. With these one to six remaining slots, I envision the Christmas release
Unbroken, Stephen Hawking biopic
The Theory of Everything, missing wife drama
Gone Girl, and the indie sensation
Whiplash as the most likely finalists.
Fringe Players
Finally there are a bunch of films that could play spoiler to the ones above. The crime drama
Foxcatcher has its loyal supporters and
A Most Violent Year was recently named the National Board of Review's film of the year, making both intriguing options for Academy Voters.
Into the Woods is Disney's big live-action musical with Meryl Streep in a major role, and the soldier drama
American Sniper could make a major late season splash as well. Surprisingly, the critical darling and Oscar baity
Mr. Turner plans to make a strong push to compete and the early year release,
The Grand Budapest Hotel, still hasn't faded away from contention. Any of these third tier films could sneak their way into the mix.
Best Director
Best Bets
No folks, that isn't a Kevin Nealon look-alike pictured above. That's the new leader in the clubhouse for Best Director, Boyhood's Richard Linklater, albeit by a small margin. I'm of the belief that if Boyhood is still this big of a player well into December, then it must hold a special place in nearly everyone's heart. But as we've seen in the past, Best Director has a strong likelihood of matching the Best Picture race, which means any of Alejandro G. Inarritu (Birdman), Morten Tyldum (The Imitation Game) and Ava DuVernay (Selma) could capture the statue. It's also important to note that DuVernay would be the first woman of color to be nominated for the category (let alone win), and we know how much the Academy Awards love a good story.
Next Tier
Likewise with the Best Picture contenders, their filmmakers will earn a big boost if nominated. That's why I picture Angelina Jolie (Unbroken), James Marsh (The Theory of Everything), David Fincher (Gone Girl) and Damien Chazelle (Whiplash) as the next crop of directors fighting for that fifth and final spot.
Fringe Players
Mike Leigh (Mr. Turner) and Bennett Miller (Foxcatcher) each have strong histories with the Academy, leaving them as viable dark-horse players in the race. J.C. Chandor (A Most Violent Year) is a major up and coming filmmaker and Clint Eastwood (American Sniper) is ... well, Clint Eastwood.
Best Actor
Best Bets
It's remarkable how many serious candidates there are for the Best Actor race this year, but I'd continue to give the early edge to Birdman's star, Michael Keaton. Yet, no one would be surprised to see any of the almost assured nominees Eddie Redmayne (The Theory of Everything), Benedict Cumberbatch (The Imitation Game) or David Oyelowo (Selma) to walk away victorious on Oscar night.
Next Tier
While the top four spots seem pretty solidified, that leaves one final opening for a multitude of worthy performances. My heart lies with Steve Carell, who gives a creepy and devilish turn in Foxcatcher, yet I expect any of Oscar Issac (A Most Violent Year), Ralph Fiennes (The Grand Budapest Hotel), Timothy Spall (Mr. Turner) or Jack O'Connell (Unbroken) as the likeliest to steal Carell's thunder.
Fringe Players
In the wake of Clint Eastwood's recent decline, I'm holding off on getting too excited about everything that is American Sniper. Yet, Bradley Cooper is said to be exceptional in the film and he along with any of Miles Teller (Whiplash) or Boyhood's Ellar Coltrane could shockingly slip into that final spot.
Best Actress
Best Bets
If you've got some extra income floating around, you could safely wager it on
Julianne Moore (
Still Alice) to not only make the final cut, but to walk home with her first Academy Award in February. Joining her in the final showdown will most likely be a trio of other exceptional performers including
Reese Witherspoon (
Wild),
Felicity Jones (
The Theory of Everything) and
Rosamund Pike (
Gone Girl).
Next Tier
Although much hasn't changed at the top of this category, some middling contenders have been shuffling around of late. Jennifer Aniston (Cake) has really worked her way into the favorite to land the fifth and final spot. Her biggest competitors appear to be Hilary Swank (The Homesman), Amy Adams (Big Eyes) and Emily Blunt (Into the Woods).
Fringe Players
Outside of long-shots
Shailene Woodley (
The Fault in Our Stars) and
Marion Cotillard (
Two Days, One Night), it appears there's very little competition remaining in this category.
Best Supporting Actor
Best Bets
The Best Supporting Actor race is appearing to be a neck and neck battle between the slight favorite, J.K. Simmons (Whiplash), and the always impressive Edward Norton (Birdman). There are two other fine performances from Ethan Hawke (Boyhood) and Mark Ruffalo (Foxcather) that hold the smallest chances of winning, but are almost assured to help fill out the final five.
Next Tier
In yet another category where the top four are assumed and one spot remains up for grabs, any of Robert Duvall (The Judge), Tom Wilkinson (Selma), Josh Brolin (Inherent Vice) and Miyavi (Unbroken) seem likeliest to close out the group.
Fringe Players
The supporting actor competition is surprisingly thin this year, so these are much deeper reaches but very dark-horses would include
Christoph Waltz (
Big Eyes),
John Goodman (
The Gambler) and
Alec Baldwin (
Still Alice).
Best Supporting Actress
Best Bets
While Best Picture winners historically find one of their performers capturing a statue as well, that trend has somewhat changed in recent years. As Birdman and The Imitation Game hold their breath in certain key races and steam builds for Selma and all of its performers, the supporting actress battle appears to be the only serious option for Boyhood to snag an acting award. Patricia Arquette stands as a serious frontrunner, yet Keira Knightley (The Imitation Game) and Emma Stone (Birdman) feel like formidable foes.
Next Tier
When it comes to female performers, Meryl Streep (Into the Woods) can never be counted out as a threat to take the category. Jessica Chastain continues to gain recognition for her role in the crime drama A Most Violent Year, and both Wild's Laura Dern and Selma's Carmen Ejogo could just as easily land in the top five.
Fringe Players
Scouring a little further down the list of worthy performances,
Carrie Coon certainly offers an exceptional supporting turn in
Gone Girl. Furthermore,
Nightcrawler's
Rene Russo was superb and rumor has it
Kristen Stewart delivers her best work to date in
Still Alice. While these three are all on the outside looking in, when it comes to the Oscars, you can never be certain.
